Wednesday, December 3, 2014

Beginning of December NFL Picks

Did better picking Week 13 games than I thought I would, going 11-5 on the week to run my season record to 128-63-1 on the year. We'll see how this week plays out for me.

Dallas Cowboys at Chicago Bears
Man oh man... this is one of those games where I don't particularly trust either team. Dallas looked downright pathetic at home against the Eagles on Thanksgiving Day and so did the Bears in Detroit. The latter to me is somewhat more understandable given that it was a road game, but the Cowboys have shown more during the season for me to think they have the ever so slight advantage here. Tony Romo may have a reputation as a choker, but I still trust him more than Jay Cutler, who just seems flat out sucks period. I'll take Dallas by a field goal.
My Call: Cowboys 30, Bears 27

Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals
Like I knew I could regret picking the Steelers at home against the Saints, I feel as though I could well regret picking against them here. This is such a big game in regards to the AFC North; so I absolutely expect Pittsburgh to show up to this one; unlike the showing at home vs. New Orleans. Hard to pick against the Bengals at home though since I believe they already had their one awful showing. It'll be close for sure, especially since I think the Steelers tend to play up or down to the competition. A Ben Roethlisberger interception makes the difference.
My Call: Bengals 24, Steelers 20

St. Louis Rams at Washington Redskins
Road game for St. Louis means this makes the prediction slightly more difficult for me than it would be if they were at home, but the Rams at least are showing me something of late. Home wins over Denver and Seattle, a road win over San Francisco and a close road loss to San Diego isn't bad at all. The Redskins appear to be on a total downswing and I dunno if they'll be as focused on the Rams as they will be for their final three games, all of which are divisional opponents.
My Call: Rams 20, Redskins 16

New York Giants at Tennessee Titans
My feelings for this one could basically be summed up similarly to the Cowboys/Bears game, except both these teams are just plain awful. The Giants just embarrassed themselves, blowing a 21 point lead in a loss to Jacksonville while the Titans have basically been inventing way after way of embarrassing themselves after the first week of the season where they won in Kansas City. There isn't a lot of motivation here for either team, there's no lookahead factor given that both play bad teams next week and the trip to Nashville isn't horrible for the Giants. Although the G-Men let me down against the Jags and I shouldn't take them here, I'll do it. Eli Manning has to be able to outduel a rookie Zach Mettenberger, right? Well.. maybe.
My Call: Giants 21, Titans 20

Carolina Panthers at New Orleans Saints
Going on the road seemed to be the perfect remedy for a Saints team that was coming off three straight home losses. They went into Pittsburgh and played great in a 35-32 win that only got kinda close late when the game was already well in hand. Now they get to go back to their own den to try again. Good thing they get to do it against a Carolina team playing horribly. I won't try and predict whether or not the Saints will beat out Atlanta for the division, but I will predict they won't be looking back on this one if they do not win the division. They'll take it handily.
My Call: Saints 34, Panthers 17

New York Jets at Minnesota Vikings
In making this one simple, all I'll say is the Jets are coming off an emotional Monday night loss against rival Miami, so I can't imagine they'll have the same motivation against an out of conference non-rival that they had for that one. Plus the Vikings aren't *that* bad, at least not by comparison to the Jets. Minnesota seems like the team to lean towards here; and by a fairly comfortable margin.
My Call: Vikings 27, Jets 10

Baltimore Ravens at Miami Dolphins
Elimination game of sorts here as both teams will enter this game at 7-5. It's tough to know what to make of either after the Ravens blew a 10 point lead in the 4th quarter in a one point loss to San Diego while Miami skated past the Jets in what was an ugly three point victory. All is well in Miami's world though because a win is a win. Gotta say although I like Ryan Tannehill better than Joe Flacco and the Dolphins are the home team here, I'm gonna roll the dice a bit and take Baltimore. Why? Well, they've been in "big games" before and won them. Miami still has to learn to win these types of games. This wouldn't completely make up for the blown opportunity against San Diego, but there's no looking back now. It's a win or else situation and we're saying the Ravens find a way by that one point they lost by in their last game.
My Call: Ravens 24, Dolphins 23

Indianapolis Colts at Cleveland Browns
Johnny Football era will have to wait at least one more week as Brian Hoyer was named the starter for this game by Browns head coach Mike Pettine. There's not gonna be any doubt as to who the starting QB will be in Indianapolis for the next at least dozen or so years (barring injury... Andrew Luck has that taken care of. And he'll take care of his team in this one. The surprising Browns will play better than they did in Buffalo, but Indy seems like the right call here.
My Call: Colts 27, Browns 21

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Detroit Lions
Another easy home game for the Lions getting to take on hapless Tampa Bay. Matt Stafford will put it up to Calvin Johnson and the Detroit defense will stifle the Bucs offense.
My Call: Lions 30, Buccaneers 13

Houston Texans at Jacksonville Jaguars
Blake Bortles had perhaps his best moment as a rookie in the NFL, helping lead the back Jaguars from a 21-0 deficit against the Giants en route to a 25-24 victory. Could this get things turned around for him? We'll see. A tougher Texans team is coming to town this week and although I think this game is also winnable for the Jags, I just don't trust their offense enough.
My Call: Texans 23, Jaguars 13

Buffalo Bills at Denver Broncos
That late rally at home against Miami carried over into Kansas City the next week as the Broncos used an unusual formula, running the ball to success in that one, taking pressure off the Hall of Fame shoulders of Peyton Manning. This game, we expect Peyton Manning to put up some more numbers. I like what the Bills are doing this year; it shows they have a real future if they can find themselves a legit QB via the draft or even trade, but they aren't ready to win this type of game yet.
My Call: Broncos 34, Bills 20

Kansas City Chiefs at Arizona Cardinals
Pretty interesting setup for this one as both teams have lost two straight games and need to get back on the right track if hope for division titles and playoff berths are to be looking good once again. It's also a game where we pretty much know what we're gonna get; a physical, low scoring battle between what should be pretty evenly matched clubs. To me, it comes down to which team makes the least mistakes and can control the clock with the run game. The Chiefs definitely have the advantage in the latter category, but the Cards certainly have more weapons to work with in the passing game. That to me means choosing between Alex Smith and Drew Stanton. And by a nose, I'm taking Alex Smith and his Chiefs. Another gamble on my part. I'm in a bit of a gambling mood this week.
My Call: Chiefs 17, Cardinals 16

Seattle Seahawks at Philadelphia Eagles
Things in my mind going for Seattle in this game are they seem to be playing better with two big divisional wins the last two weeks and I do believe even though the record may not show it, they're a better team than the Eagles. Two things going against them are this one is in Philadelphia and it's a regular season game. One more thing going for them is this is a later starting game. One more against them is the trip cross country. If this were a playoff game, I'd undoubtedly think the Seahawks would figure out a way to win. Although I have a feeling I may regret this pick, I'm gonna take Seattle to win this one as well. They won't hold Philly to three points like they did to San Francisco, but I absolutely think they can score more than 19 and that the defense can keep Philly's offense in check. Plus I'm still not really a big believer in Mark Sanchez either.
My Call: Seahawks 24, Eagles 21

San Francisco 49ers at Oakland Raiders
Well, I did say the Raiders played in their Super Bowl against KC and they sure fell flat on their faces on the road in St. Louis. Good news for them though is the 49ers will be making their way to O.co Coliseum. Yes, the Niners are the better team and *should* win, but I do expect Oakland to show up for this game against their Bay Area counterparts. Plus it's not like San Francisco is exactly lighting it up, especially offensively. Look, I'm gonna take the 49ers because I think Oakland is a bad, bad team. However, I won't be too surprised if they have to work harder than they should for this one and wouldn't be flat out shocked if the Raiders beat them.
My Call: 49ers 21, Raiders 13

New England Patriots at San Diego Chargers
Although it's hard for me to pick against New England here, they do face an interesting enough dilemma to where a second straight defeat wouldn't surprise me. The Chargers have a pretty solid team and are coming off what should be a big emotional lift in that rally to beat the Ravens in Baltimore. Plus the Pats are coming off that very emotional loss to the Packers in Lambeau Field and have to make the flight all the way across the country for this Sunday night affair. I've shown some guts in a couple picks in this blog, but not here. Not quite, anyway.
My Call: Patriots 31, Chargers 30

Atlanta Falcons at Green Bay Packers
How do you follow up that win against New England? By hopefully avoiding a letdown against the Falcons. I'm not too concerned about that, especially with this game in Green Bay. If it were being played in Atlanta, I'd be considerably more worried about that. However, a Monday night game at the Frozen Tundra just doesn't sound good for these Falcons. I think the Packers perhaps start out a bit slow in the first quarter but pick it up from there and roll.
My Call: Packers 31, Falcons 20

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